AI Research
Oct 31, 2026
Data Scientist Predicts Republicans Have 17% Chance of Retaining Senate Control
Oct 31, 2026
AI Summary
Thomas Miller, a data scientist from Northwestern University, has updated his model for predicting Senate election outcomes, indicating that Republicans currently have a 17.1% chance of retaining control of the Senate. This marks a significant decline from 34.8% in mid-September, with various factors, particularly the influence of Donald Trump, impacting the odds.
- Thomas Miller, a data scientist and professor, uses betting market data to forecast Senate election outcomes.
- As of October 30, Republicans have a 17.1% chance of winning 50 seats, down from 34.8% on September 17.
- In North Carolina, the GOP's chances have dropped to 4%, while in Texas, they fell from 46.15% to 31.9%.
- The model shows Democrats have better than 60% chances in five contests where they could flip seats.
- Republican candidates in traditional strongholds Iowa and Kansas have also seen significant declines in their odds.
- The model updates probabilities every 10 minutes and factors in various influences, with Trump being a dominant force.
- Miller's predictions suggest that if Democrats win all contests where they have over 60% probability, they could achieve a 52 to 48 majority in the Senate.
- The model is designed to provide a snapshot of probabilities rather than definitive predictions, allowing for unexpected outcomes.
data sciencepoliticsmodelingelectionsbetting markets