AI Research
Jul 31, 2026
Federal Reserve study finds AI's impact on productivity remains unclear despite optimism
Jul 31, 2026
AI Summary
A Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis study of corporate earnings calls indicates that artificial intelligence has not yet significantly increased overall productivity. Researchers suggest that while companies are optimistic about future gains from AI, the technology may be creating more abundant but less valuable outputs, complicating productivity measurements.
- The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis analyzed nearly 490,000 corporate earnings calls to assess AI's impact on productivity.
- The study found no measurable increase in aggregate productivity from AI, despite rising expectations among executives.
- Approximately 95% of AI-related productivity comments from executives are future-oriented, indicating optimism rather than realized gains.
- Historical patterns suggest that significant productivity improvements from new technologies often take decades to materialize.
- The research highlights a potential paradox where AI makes outputs cheaper, leading to a decrease in their value, which can obscure real productivity gains.
- Firms expressing positive sentiments about AI have increased their investments in research and development, indicating a correlation between optimism and financial commitment.
- The study emphasizes that productivity is influenced by various factors, and AI's effects may not be fully captured in current statistics.
- The eventual realization of AI's productivity benefits remains uncertain and may depend on unpredictable developments in technology application.
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